Bo3 · IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1
· 2026-06-04
Liquid
✓
vs
HEROIC
53%
47%
Series win probability
LIQU
2–0
31%
HERO
2–1
28%
LIQU
2–1
22%
HERO
2–0
19%
Actual result
Nuke
13–5
LIQU
Inferno
13–11
LIQU
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Liquid is slightly favored at 53% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#39 vs #32), a strong nuke (61% win probability). HEROIC's best shot is dust2 where they hold a 55% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
39%
Mirage · Nuke · Dust2
Scenario 2
31%
Nuke · Dust2 · Ancient
Scenario 3
30%
Nuke · Dust2 · Inferno
Mirage
LIQU
16
–
14
HERO
50%
50%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Ranking
LIQU
HERO
Pistol Rating
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Mirage
Liquid
10-13
vs MIBR
Jun 3
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 21
9-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-8
vs HAVU
Mar 31
16-13
vs Inner Circle
Mar 30
HEROIC
9-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
May 27
8-13
vs magic
May 11
4-13
vs FURIA
May 10
6-13
vs Gentle Mates
May 10
13-8
vs Monte
Apr 25
Nuke
LIQU
13
–
11
HERO
61%
39%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Opening Kills
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Map Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Nuke
Liquid
13-10
vs BIG
Jun 2
9-13
vs The MongolZ
May 21
13-11
vs 3DMAX
May 20
6-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
14-16
vs 3DMAX
Apr 14
HEROIC
10-13
vs Sharks
Jun 2
7-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
May 27
13-8
vs Aurora
May 8
0-13
vs Monte
Apr 26
13-9
vs Monte
Apr 25
Dust2
LIQU
10
–
13
HERO
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Ranking
LIQU
HERO
Map Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Dust2
Liquid
9-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 2
9-13
vs 3DMAX
May 20
9-13
vs PARIVISION
May 19
4-13
vs M80
May 12
4-13
vs Astralis
May 11
HEROIC
13-5
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Jun 3
11-13
vs Lynn Vision
Jun 2
11-13
vs 9z
May 28
13-4
vs magic
May 11
13-11
vs Aurora
May 8
Nuke
LIQU
13
–
11
HERO
61%
39%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Opening Kills
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Map Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Nuke
Liquid
13-10
vs BIG
Jun 2
9-13
vs The MongolZ
May 21
13-11
vs 3DMAX
May 20
6-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
14-16
vs 3DMAX
Apr 14
HEROIC
10-13
vs Sharks
Jun 2
7-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
May 27
13-8
vs Aurora
May 8
0-13
vs Monte
Apr 26
13-9
vs Monte
Apr 25
Dust2
LIQU
10
–
13
HERO
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Ranking
LIQU
HERO
Map Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Dust2
Liquid
9-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 2
9-13
vs 3DMAX
May 20
9-13
vs PARIVISION
May 19
4-13
vs M80
May 12
4-13
vs Astralis
May 11
HEROIC
13-5
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Jun 3
11-13
vs Lynn Vision
Jun 2
11-13
vs 9z
May 28
13-4
vs magic
May 11
13-11
vs Aurora
May 8
Ancient
LIQU
8
–
13
HERO
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Opening Kills
LIQU
HERO
Map Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
Ranking
LIQU
HERO
Round Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Ancient
Liquid
13-5
vs M80
May 12
11-13
vs Astralis
May 11
5-13
vs 3DMAX
Apr 14
2-13
vs Spirit
Apr 13
7-13
vs M80
Mar 31
HEROIC
10-13
vs Monte
Apr 26
13-9
vs BetBoom
Apr 3
13-5
vs FUT
Mar 7
13-9
vs 100 Thieves
Feb 28
13-10
vs ASTRAL
Feb 26
Nuke
LIQU
13
–
11
HERO
61%
39%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Opening Kills
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Map Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Nuke
Liquid
13-10
vs BIG
Jun 2
9-13
vs The MongolZ
May 21
13-11
vs 3DMAX
May 20
6-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
14-16
vs 3DMAX
Apr 14
HEROIC
10-13
vs Sharks
Jun 2
7-13
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
May 27
13-8
vs Aurora
May 8
0-13
vs Monte
Apr 26
13-9
vs Monte
Apr 25
Dust2
LIQU
10
–
13
HERO
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 11%
Key factors
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Ranking
LIQU
HERO
Map Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Dust2
Liquid
9-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 2
9-13
vs 3DMAX
May 20
9-13
vs PARIVISION
May 19
4-13
vs M80
May 12
4-13
vs Astralis
May 11
HEROIC
13-5
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Jun 3
11-13
vs Lynn Vision
Jun 2
11-13
vs 9z
May 28
13-4
vs magic
May 11
13-11
vs Aurora
May 8
Inferno
LIQU
16
–
14
HERO
51%
49%
Win prob
OT 12%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
CT 4v5
LIQU
HERO
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Round Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Inferno
Liquid
7-13
vs The MongolZ
May 21
13-11
vs 3DMAX
May 20
13-8
vs M80
May 12
9-13
vs M80
Mar 31
6-13
vs OG
Mar 15
HEROIC
13-6
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Jun 3
14-16
vs 9z
May 28
6-13
vs magic
May 11
7-13
vs FURIA
May 10
4-13
vs Gentle Mates
May 10
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Liquid
HEROIC
L
0-1
vs MIBR
Mirage
Jun 3
12d ago
W
1-0
vs BIG
Nuke
Jun 2
13d ago
L
0-1
vs BetBoom
Dust2
Jun 2
13d ago
L
1-2
vs The MongolZ
MirageInfernoNuke
May 21
25d ago
W
2-1
vs 3DMAX
NukeDust2Inferno
May 20
26d ago
L
0-1
vs PARIVISION
Dust2
May 19
27d ago
L
0-2
vs GamerLegion
MirageNuke
May 13
33d ago
W
2-1
vs M80
Dust2InfernoAncient
May 12
34d ago
L
0-2
vs Astralis
Dust2Ancient
May 11
35d ago
L
0-2
vs 3DMAX
NukeAncient
Apr 14
62d ago
L
0-2
vs Spirit
AncientDust2
Apr 13
63d ago
W
2-0
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Dust2Inferno
Jun 3
12d ago
L
0-1
vs Sharks
Nuke
Jun 2
13d ago
L
0-1
vs Lynn Vision
Dust2
Jun 2
13d ago
L
1-2
vs 9z
InfernoOverpassDust2
May 28
18d ago
L
0-2
vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
NukeMirage
May 27
19d ago
L
1-2
vs magic
MirageDust2Inferno
May 11
35d ago
L
0-2
vs FURIA
MirageInferno
May 10
36d ago
L
0-2
vs Gentle Mates
InfernoMirage
May 10
36d ago
W
2-0
vs Aurora
NukeDust2
May 8
38d ago
L
1-3
vs Monte
NukeDust2InfernoAncient
Apr 26
50d ago
W
2-1
vs Monte
NukeDust2Mirage
Apr 25
51d ago
Player Matchups
Liquid
Ratings
HEROIC
MA
malbsMd
RiflerADR 77.0KAST 71%
NI
nilo
EntryADR 79.3KAST 72%
NA
NAF
EntryADR 77.6KAST 73%
XF
xfl0ud
RiflerADR 76.8KAST 70%
EL
EliGE
RiflerADR 77.0KAST 71%
SU
susp
RiflerADR 67.5KAST 72%
UL
ultimate
AWPADR 65.8KAST 70%
YX
yxngstxr
AWPADR 65.5KAST 71%
SI
siuhy
RiflerADR 63.1KAST 68%
CH
Chr1zN
RiflerADR 66.3KAST 67%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Anubis
LIQU
13
–
7
HERO
78%
22%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Opening Kills
LIQU
HERO
Ban Rate
LIQU
HERO
Ranking
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Anubis
Liquid
10-13
vs Sashi
Mar 31
13-3
vs M80
Mar 4
HEROIC
no data
Ancient
LIQU
8
–
13
HERO
30%
70%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Opening Kills
LIQU
HERO
Map Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
Ranking
LIQU
HERO
Round Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Ancient
Liquid
13-5
vs M80
May 12
11-13
vs Astralis
May 11
5-13
vs 3DMAX
Apr 14
2-13
vs Spirit
Apr 13
7-13
vs M80
Mar 31
HEROIC
10-13
vs Monte
Apr 26
13-9
vs BetBoom
Apr 3
13-5
vs FUT
Mar 7
13-9
vs 100 Thieves
Feb 28
13-10
vs ASTRAL
Feb 26
Inferno
LIQU
16
–
14
HERO
51%
49%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
LIQU
HERO
Map ADR
LIQU
HERO
CT 4v5
LIQU
HERO
After First Death
LIQU
HERO
Round Win Rate
LIQU
HERO
Recent on Inferno
Liquid
7-13
vs The MongolZ
May 21
13-11
vs 3DMAX
May 20
13-8
vs M80
May 12
9-13
vs M80
Mar 31
6-13
vs OG
Mar 15
HEROIC
13-6
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Jun 3
14-16
vs 9z
May 28
6-13
vs magic
May 11
7-13
vs FURIA
May 10
4-13
vs Gentle Mates
May 10
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1
5 matches