Bo3 · IEM Cologne Major 2026
· 2026-06-12
Aurora
vs
Spirit
✓
13%
87%
Series win probability
SPIR
2–0
47%
SPIR
2–1
35%
AURO
2–1
11%
AURO
2–0
8%
Actual result
Dust2
13–9
AURO
Anubis
13–4
SPIR
Nuke
13–5
SPIR
Model Insights
Spirit is strongly favored at 87%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.16 vs 1.05), a strong dust2 (83% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
39%
Dust2 · Anubis · Mirage
Scenario 2
37%
Dust2 · Anubis · Overpass
Scenario 3
24%
Dust2 · Anubis · Nuke
Dust2
AURO
6
–
13
SPIR
17%
83%
Win prob
OT 4%
✗
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Overall Rating
AURO
SPIR
Opening Kills
AURO
SPIR
Round Win Rate
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
Aurora
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 14
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-3
vs The Huns
May 10
16-14
vs PARIVISION
May 10
11-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
Spirit
13-1
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
16-12
vs Falcons
May 17
13-3
vs MOUZ
May 16
13-6
vs G2
May 15
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
Anubis
AURO
11
–
13
SPIR
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Round Win %
AURO
SPIR
Opening Kills
AURO
SPIR
Side Balance
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
Aurora
13-7
vs Monte
Jun 11
13-7
vs PARIVISION
May 10
9-13
vs Alliance
Apr 1
10-13
vs M80
Mar 31
8-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 23
Spirit
13-8
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
Mirage
AURO
7
–
13
SPIR
23%
77%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Overall Rating
AURO
SPIR
Flash Assists
AURO
SPIR
Round Win Rate
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Mirage
Aurora
13-10
vs The MongolZ
May 13
13-7
vs B8
Apr 15
13-11
vs Natus Vincere
Apr 15
8-13
vs MOUZ
Apr 14
13-4
vs HOTU
Apr 13
Spirit
13-3
vs 9z
Jun 7
13-5
vs BetBoom
Jun 6
13-1
vs MIBR
Jun 6
13-7
vs Falcons
May 17
13-11
vs FURIA
May 11
Dust2
AURO
6
–
13
SPIR
17%
83%
Win prob
OT 4%
✗
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Overall Rating
AURO
SPIR
Opening Kills
AURO
SPIR
Round Win Rate
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
Aurora
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 14
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-3
vs The Huns
May 10
16-14
vs PARIVISION
May 10
11-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
Spirit
13-1
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
16-12
vs Falcons
May 17
13-3
vs MOUZ
May 16
13-6
vs G2
May 15
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
Anubis
AURO
11
–
13
SPIR
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Round Win %
AURO
SPIR
Opening Kills
AURO
SPIR
Side Balance
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
Aurora
13-7
vs Monte
Jun 11
13-7
vs PARIVISION
May 10
9-13
vs Alliance
Apr 1
10-13
vs M80
Mar 31
8-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 23
Spirit
13-8
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
Overpass
AURO
7
–
13
SPIR
22%
78%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Opening Kills
AURO
SPIR
Round Win Rate
AURO
SPIR
After First Death
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Overpass
Aurora
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 13
13-6
vs B8
Apr 15
11-13
vs Alliance
Apr 1
13-7
vs Sashi
Mar 31
11-13
vs M80
Mar 31
Spirit
12-16
vs FURIA
May 11
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
Dust2
AURO
6
–
13
SPIR
17%
83%
Win prob
OT 4%
✗
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Overall Rating
AURO
SPIR
Opening Kills
AURO
SPIR
Round Win Rate
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Dust2
Aurora
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 14
11-13
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-3
vs The Huns
May 10
16-14
vs PARIVISION
May 10
11-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
Spirit
13-1
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
16-12
vs Falcons
May 17
13-3
vs MOUZ
May 16
13-6
vs G2
May 15
13-8
vs FURIA
May 11
Anubis
AURO
11
–
13
SPIR
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Round Win %
AURO
SPIR
Opening Kills
AURO
SPIR
Side Balance
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Anubis
Aurora
13-7
vs Monte
Jun 11
13-7
vs PARIVISION
May 10
9-13
vs Alliance
Apr 1
10-13
vs M80
Mar 31
8-13
vs Natus Vincere
Mar 23
Spirit
13-8
vs Natus Vincere
Jun 11
4-13
vs Falcons
Apr 14
3-13
vs PARIVISION
Mar 21
13-10
vs G2
Mar 8
13-7
vs B8
Mar 7
Nuke
AURO
5
–
13
SPIR
9%
91%
Win prob
OT 1%
✗
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Round Win Rate
AURO
SPIR
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
After First Kill
AURO
SPIR
Overall Rating
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
Aurora
13-10
vs Monte
Jun 11
8-13
vs MOUZ
May 14
15-19
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-4
vs The Huns
May 10
8-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
Spirit
13-1
vs 9z
Jun 7
13-2
vs MOUZ
May 16
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Aurora
Spirit
W
2-0
vs Monte
NukeAnubis
Jun 11
4d ago
L
0-2
vs MOUZ
Dust2Nuke
May 14
32d ago
W
2-0
vs The MongolZ
OverpassMirage
May 13
33d ago
L
0-2
vs MOUZ
Dust2Nuke
May 11
35d ago
W
2-0
vs The Huns
NukeDust2
May 10
36d ago
W
2-0
vs PARIVISION
AnubisDust2
May 10
36d ago
L
0-2
vs HEROIC
NukeDust2
May 8
38d ago
W
2-0
vs B8
MirageOverpass
Apr 15
61d ago
L
1-2
vs Natus Vincere
InfernoMirageDust2
Apr 15
61d ago
L
0-2
vs MOUZ
Dust2Mirage
Apr 14
62d ago
W
2-0
vs HOTU
MirageDust2
Apr 13
63d ago
W
2-0
vs Natus Vincere
Dust2Anubis
Jun 11
4d ago
W
2-0
vs 9z
MirageNuke
Jun 7
8d ago
W
1-0
vs BetBoom
Mirage
Jun 6
9d ago
W
1-0
vs MIBR
Mirage
Jun 6
9d ago
W
3-0
vs Falcons
Dust2MirageAncient
May 17
29d ago
W
2-0
vs MOUZ
Dust2Nuke
May 16
30d ago
W
2-0
vs G2
Dust2Ancient
May 15
31d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
Dust2OverpassMirage
May 11
35d ago
W
2-0
vs The MongolZ
Dust2Ancient
May 10
36d ago
W
2-0
vs The Huns
Dust2Ancient
May 9
37d ago
L
0-3
vs Vitality
MirageNukeDust2
Apr 19
57d ago
Player Matchups
Aurora
Ratings
Spirit
WI
Wicadia
EntryADR 82.2KAST 72%
DO
donk
EntryADR 99.3KAST 79%
WO
woxic
AWPADR 73.5KAST 72%
SH
sh1ro
AWPADR 75.2KAST 77%
XA
XANTARES
RiflerADR 78.0KAST 73%
TN
tN1R
RiflerADR 73.7KAST 74%
SO
soulfly
RiflerADR 67.3KAST 72%
MA
magixx
RiflerADR 69.6KAST 75%
MA
MAJ3R
RiflerADR 64.0KAST 70%
ZO
zont1x
RiflerADR 66.6KAST 76%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Ancient
AURO
4
–
13
SPIR
4%
96%
Win prob
OT 0%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
After First Kill
AURO
SPIR
Overall Rating
AURO
SPIR
Ban Rate
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Ancient
Aurora
22-25
vs Vitality
Feb 3
Spirit
13-10
vs Falcons
May 17
13-11
vs G2
May 15
19-16
vs The MongolZ
May 10
13-3
vs The Huns
May 9
13-8
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
Nuke
AURO
5
–
13
SPIR
9%
91%
Win prob
OT 1%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Round Win Rate
AURO
SPIR
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
After First Kill
AURO
SPIR
Overall Rating
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Nuke
Aurora
13-10
vs Monte
Jun 11
8-13
vs MOUZ
May 14
15-19
vs MOUZ
May 11
13-4
vs The Huns
May 10
8-13
vs HEROIC
May 8
Spirit
13-1
vs 9z
Jun 7
13-2
vs MOUZ
May 16
10-13
vs Vitality
Apr 19
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-9
vs B8
Mar 7
Overpass
AURO
7
–
13
SPIR
22%
78%
Win prob
OT 6%
Key factors
Ranking
AURO
SPIR
Map Player Rating
AURO
SPIR
Opening Kills
AURO
SPIR
Round Win Rate
AURO
SPIR
After First Death
AURO
SPIR
Recent on Overpass
Aurora
13-11
vs The MongolZ
May 13
13-6
vs B8
Apr 15
11-13
vs Alliance
Apr 1
13-7
vs Sashi
Mar 31
11-13
vs M80
Mar 31
Spirit
12-16
vs FURIA
May 11
13-2
vs RED Canids
Apr 15
9-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 23
13-6
vs 9z
Mar 22
13-7
vs 3DMAX
Mar 6
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026
7 matches