Bo3 · IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2
· 2026-06-08
Astralis
vs
paiN
✓
44%
56%
Series win probability
PAIN
2–0
38%
ASTR
2–1
33%
PAIN
2–1
15%
ASTR
2–0
14%
Actual result
Nuke
13–11
PAIN
Overpass
13–4
PAIN
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — paiN is slightly favored at 56% but only leads on 2 of 3 maps. Key factors: stronger map pool data despite being lower-ranked (#21 vs #11), a strong nuke (66% win probability). Astralis's best shot is inferno where they hold a 69% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
38%
Overpass · Nuke · Inferno
Scenario 2
36%
Overpass · Nuke · Mirage
Scenario 3
26%
Overpass · Nuke · Dust2
Overpass
ASTR
10
–
13
PAIN
42%
58%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Days With Lineup Opp
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Overpass
Astralis
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 1
9-13
vs G2
Apr 29
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 10
13-5
vs MIBR
Apr 4
16-12
vs FUT
Mar 15
paiN
9-13
vs BIG
Jun 6
13-6
vs TYLOO
May 21
7-13
vs MOUZ
May 21
13-6
vs GamerLegion
May 15
10-13
vs FUT
May 12
Nuke
ASTR
8
–
13
PAIN
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 9%
✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
6-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 7
5-13
vs 9z
Jun 6
6-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-10
vs FUT
Apr 30
16-14
vs FUT
Apr 11
paiN
13-7
vs FlyQuest
Jun 7
8-13
vs TYLOO
May 21
4-13
vs MOUZ
May 21
6-13
vs GamerLegion
May 15
13-6
vs BetBoom
May 13
Inferno
ASTR
13
–
8
PAIN
69%
31%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Flash Assists
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Inferno
Astralis
13-8
vs SINNERS
May 13
14-16
vs GamerLegion
May 1
13-2
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
10-13
vs Aurora
Mar 14
13-4
vs FURIA
Mar 10
paiN
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 15
4-13
vs ShindeN
Apr 4
13-6
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Mar 30
9-13
vs 9z
Mar 29
13-11
vs lp
Mar 27
Overpass
ASTR
10
–
13
PAIN
42%
58%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Days With Lineup Opp
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Overpass
Astralis
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 1
9-13
vs G2
Apr 29
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 10
13-5
vs MIBR
Apr 4
16-12
vs FUT
Mar 15
paiN
9-13
vs BIG
Jun 6
13-6
vs TYLOO
May 21
7-13
vs MOUZ
May 21
13-6
vs GamerLegion
May 15
10-13
vs FUT
May 12
Nuke
ASTR
8
–
13
PAIN
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 9%
✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
6-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 7
5-13
vs 9z
Jun 6
6-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-10
vs FUT
Apr 30
16-14
vs FUT
Apr 11
paiN
13-7
vs FlyQuest
Jun 7
8-13
vs TYLOO
May 21
4-13
vs MOUZ
May 21
6-13
vs GamerLegion
May 15
13-6
vs BetBoom
May 13
Mirage
ASTR
13
–
11
PAIN
54%
46%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Best Player
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Mirage
Astralis
13-11
vs SINNERS
May 13
3-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-5
vs FUT
Apr 30
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
8-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
paiN
9-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 6
13-5
vs TYLOO
May 21
8-13
vs M80
May 19
13-8
vs ShindeN
Apr 4
13-5
vs Fluxo
Apr 4
Overpass
ASTR
10
–
13
PAIN
42%
58%
Win prob
OT 12%
✓
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Days With Lineup Opp
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Overpass
Astralis
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 1
9-13
vs G2
Apr 29
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 10
13-5
vs MIBR
Apr 4
16-12
vs FUT
Mar 15
paiN
9-13
vs BIG
Jun 6
13-6
vs TYLOO
May 21
7-13
vs MOUZ
May 21
13-6
vs GamerLegion
May 15
10-13
vs FUT
May 12
Nuke
ASTR
8
–
13
PAIN
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 9%
✓
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Nuke
Astralis
6-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 7
5-13
vs 9z
Jun 6
6-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-10
vs FUT
Apr 30
16-14
vs FUT
Apr 11
paiN
13-7
vs FlyQuest
Jun 7
8-13
vs TYLOO
May 21
4-13
vs MOUZ
May 21
6-13
vs GamerLegion
May 15
13-6
vs BetBoom
May 13
Dust2
ASTR
8
–
13
PAIN
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Opening Kills
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Best Player
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Dust2
Astralis
8-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-4
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs G2
Apr 29
3-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
13-11
vs 3DMAX
Apr 10
paiN
13-8
vs BC.Game
May 20
11-13
vs BetBoom
May 13
13-11
vs FUT
May 12
13-6
vs FaZe
May 11
13-7
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Apr 5
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Astralis
paiN
L
0-1
vs TYLOO
Nuke
Jun 7
8d ago
W
1-0
vs GamerLegion
Ancient
Jun 6
9d ago
L
0-1
vs 9z
Nuke
Jun 6
9d ago
W
2-0
vs SINNERS
MirageInferno
May 13
33d ago
L
0-2
vs GamerLegion
MirageAncient
May 13
33d ago
L
0-2
vs Legacy
Dust2Nuke
May 12
34d ago
W
2-0
vs Liquid
Dust2Ancient
May 11
35d ago
L
0-2
vs GamerLegion
OverpassInferno
May 1
45d ago
W
2-0
vs FUT
MirageNuke
Apr 30
46d ago
L
0-2
vs G2
Dust2Overpass
Apr 29
47d ago
L
1-3
vs FUT
AncientMirageNukeDust2
Apr 11
65d ago
W
2-0
vs FlyQuest
NukeAnubis
Jun 7
8d ago
L
0-1
vs TYLOO
Mirage
Jun 6
9d ago
L
0-1
vs BIG
Overpass
Jun 6
9d ago
W
2-1
vs TYLOO
MirageNukeOverpass
May 21
25d ago
L
0-2
vs MOUZ
NukeOverpass
May 21
25d ago
W
2-0
vs BC.Game
Dust2Anubis
May 20
26d ago
L
0-1
vs M80
Mirage
May 19
27d ago
L
1-2
vs GamerLegion
OverpassNukeInferno
May 15
31d ago
L
1-2
vs BetBoom
Dust2NukeAnubis
May 13
33d ago
W
2-1
vs FUT
NukeOverpassDust2
May 12
34d ago
W
2-0
vs FaZe
Dust2Anubis
May 11
35d ago
Player Matchups
Astralis
Ratings
paiN
ST
Staehr
RiflerADR 80.7KAST 72%
SN
snow
RiflerADR 75.7KAST 73%
JA
jabbi
EntryADR 76.1KAST 72%
PI
piriajr
RiflerADR 77.1KAST 72%
PH
phzy
AWPADR 70.1KAST 71%
VS
vsm
RiflerADR 70.6KAST 70%
RY
ryu
RiflerADR 70.9KAST 70%
BI
biguzera
EntryADR 71.1KAST 73%
HO
HooXi
RiflerADR 62.4KAST 69%
SA
saffee
AWPADR 68.0KAST 70%
Unpredicted Maps
4 maps
Anubis
ASTR
6
–
13
PAIN
14%
86%
Win prob
OT 4%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Ban Rate
ASTR
PAIN
After First Death
ASTR
PAIN
Map ADR
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Anubis
Astralis
no data
paiN
13-10
vs FlyQuest
Jun 7
13-4
vs BC.Game
May 20
5-13
vs BetBoom
May 13
13-8
vs FaZe
May 11
13-4
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Apr 5
Ancient
ASTR
13
–
6
PAIN
85%
15%
Win prob
OT 3%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Experience
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Ban Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Ancient
Astralis
13-4
vs GamerLegion
Jun 6
8-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-11
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
16-14
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
paiN
no data
Dust2
ASTR
8
–
13
PAIN
34%
66%
Win prob
OT 9%
Key factors
Map Player Rating
ASTR
PAIN
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Opening Kills
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win %
ASTR
PAIN
Best Player
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Dust2
Astralis
8-13
vs Legacy
May 12
13-4
vs Liquid
May 11
5-13
vs G2
Apr 29
3-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
13-11
vs 3DMAX
Apr 10
paiN
13-8
vs BC.Game
May 20
11-13
vs BetBoom
May 13
13-11
vs FUT
May 12
13-6
vs FaZe
May 11
13-7
vs Gaimin Gladiators
Apr 5
Mirage
ASTR
13
–
11
PAIN
54%
46%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
Ranking
ASTR
PAIN
Round Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
Best Player
ASTR
PAIN
Map Win Rate
ASTR
PAIN
5v4 Rounds
ASTR
PAIN
Recent on Mirage
Astralis
13-11
vs SINNERS
May 13
3-13
vs GamerLegion
May 13
13-5
vs FUT
Apr 30
5-13
vs FUT
Apr 11
8-13
vs EYEBALLERS
Apr 9
paiN
9-13
vs TYLOO
Jun 6
13-5
vs TYLOO
May 21
8-13
vs M80
May 19
13-8
vs ShindeN
Apr 4
13-5
vs Fluxo
Apr 4
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2
5 matches