Bo3 · IEM Cologne Major 2026
· 2026-06-14
Natus Vincere
✗
vs
Falcons
51%
49%
Series win probability
FALC
2–1
46%
FALC
2–0
28%
NAVI
2–0
21%
NAVI
2–1
5%
Actual result
Dust2
13–3
FALC
Mirage
13–7
NAVI
Anubis
19–16
FALC
Model Insights
This is a toss-up — Natus Vincere is slightly favored at 51% but only leads on 1 of 3 maps. Key factors: a higher average player rating (1.09 vs 1.05). Falcons's best shot is anubis where they hold a 90% edge.
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
36%
Ancient · Dust2 · Anubis
Scenario 2
36%
Ancient · Dust2 · Mirage
Scenario 3
28%
Ancient · Dust2 · Inferno
Ancient
NAVI
13
–
11
FALC
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Map Player Rating
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Map Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Ancient
Natus Vincere
16-13
vs The MongolZ
Jun 13
13-10
vs Legacy
Jun 12
13-8
vs BetBoom
May 16
13-8
vs Legacy
May 13
1-13
vs GamerLegion
May 12
Falcons
10-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 12
16-13
vs G2
Jun 11
9-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-9
vs Legacy
May 21
13-11
vs M80
May 20
Dust2
NAVI
10
–
13
FALC
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 11%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Round Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
After First Kill
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
Natus Vincere
1-13
vs Spirit
Jun 11
11-13
vs Vitality
May 15
6-13
vs Legacy
May 13
3-13
vs Vitality
May 3
13-5
vs FaZe
May 2
Falcons
11-13
vs Monte
Jun 13
13-8
vs G2
Jun 11
6-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-7
vs MOUZ
May 22
13-7
vs Legacy
May 21
Anubis
NAVI
5
–
13
FALC
10%
90%
Win prob
OT 3%
✓
Key factors
After First Kill
NAVI
FALC
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
Map Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Ranking
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Anubis
Natus Vincere
8-13
vs Spirit
Jun 11
13-9
vs GamerLegion
May 17
13-11
vs Vitality
May 15
16-13
vs Passion UA
May 11
11-13
vs Vitality
May 3
Falcons
13-4
vs Spirit
Apr 14
13-11
vs FURIA
Feb 16
13-9
vs FaZe
Feb 15
13-5
vs 3DMAX
Feb 3
7-13
vs Aurora
Feb 1
Ancient
NAVI
13
–
11
FALC
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Map Player Rating
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Map Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Ancient
Natus Vincere
16-13
vs The MongolZ
Jun 13
13-10
vs Legacy
Jun 12
13-8
vs BetBoom
May 16
13-8
vs Legacy
May 13
1-13
vs GamerLegion
May 12
Falcons
10-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 12
16-13
vs G2
Jun 11
9-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-9
vs Legacy
May 21
13-11
vs M80
May 20
Dust2
NAVI
10
–
13
FALC
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 11%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Round Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
After First Kill
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
Natus Vincere
1-13
vs Spirit
Jun 11
11-13
vs Vitality
May 15
6-13
vs Legacy
May 13
3-13
vs Vitality
May 3
13-5
vs FaZe
May 2
Falcons
11-13
vs Monte
Jun 13
13-8
vs G2
Jun 11
6-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-7
vs MOUZ
May 22
13-7
vs Legacy
May 21
Mirage
NAVI
13
–
8
FALC
79%
21%
Win prob
OT 8%
✗
Key factors
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Map Player Rating
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Map Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Mirage
Natus Vincere
13-6
vs The MongolZ
Jun 13
13-3
vs GamerLegion
May 17
13-11
vs GamerLegion
May 12
13-4
vs Passion UA
May 11
13-10
vs GamerLegion
Apr 30
Falcons
13-10
vs Monte
Jun 13
6-13
vs Legacy
May 23
7-13
vs MOUZ
May 22
7-13
vs Spirit
May 17
9-13
vs FURIA
May 15
Ancient
NAVI
13
–
11
FALC
55%
45%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Map Player Rating
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Map Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Ancient
Natus Vincere
16-13
vs The MongolZ
Jun 13
13-10
vs Legacy
Jun 12
13-8
vs BetBoom
May 16
13-8
vs Legacy
May 13
1-13
vs GamerLegion
May 12
Falcons
10-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 12
16-13
vs G2
Jun 11
9-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-9
vs Legacy
May 21
13-11
vs M80
May 20
Dust2
NAVI
10
–
13
FALC
38%
62%
Win prob
OT 11%
✓
Key factors
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Round Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
After First Kill
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Dust2
Natus Vincere
1-13
vs Spirit
Jun 11
11-13
vs Vitality
May 15
6-13
vs Legacy
May 13
3-13
vs Vitality
May 3
13-5
vs FaZe
May 2
Falcons
11-13
vs Monte
Jun 13
13-8
vs G2
Jun 11
6-13
vs Legacy
May 23
13-7
vs MOUZ
May 22
13-7
vs Legacy
May 21
Inferno
NAVI
13
–
8
FALC
75%
25%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
NAVI
FALC
T 5v4
NAVI
FALC
Map Player Rating
NAVI
FALC
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Inferno
Natus Vincere
13-4
vs Legacy
Jun 12
13-3
vs Vitality
May 15
11-13
vs Legacy
May 13
13-4
vs GamerLegion
May 12
13-4
vs Aurora
Apr 15
Falcons
13-9
vs Monte
Jun 13
10-13
vs G2
Jun 11
19-15
vs M80
May 20
11-13
vs The MongolZ
May 12
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
Recent Results
last 11 matches
Natus Vincere
Falcons
W
2-1
vs The MongolZ
NukeAncientMirage
Jun 13
2d ago
W
2-0
vs Legacy
InfernoAncient
Jun 12
3d ago
L
0-2
vs Spirit
Dust2Anubis
Jun 11
4d ago
W
3-0
vs GamerLegion
MirageAnubisNuke
May 17
29d ago
W
2-0
vs BetBoom
AncientNuke
May 16
30d ago
W
2-1
vs Vitality
Dust2AnubisInferno
May 15
31d ago
L
1-2
vs Legacy
InfernoAncientDust2
May 13
33d ago
W
2-1
vs GamerLegion
InfernoAncientMirage
May 12
34d ago
W
2-0
vs Passion UA
AnubisMirage
May 11
35d ago
L
0-3
vs Vitality
NukeAnubisDust2
May 3
43d ago
W
2-0
vs FaZe
Dust2Ancient
May 2
44d ago
W
2-1
vs Monte
InfernoDust2Mirage
Jun 13
2d ago
L
0-2
vs BetBoom
NukeAncient
Jun 12
3d ago
W
2-1
vs G2
InfernoDust2Ancient
Jun 11
4d ago
L
1-3
vs Legacy
NukeAncientMirageDust2
May 23
23d ago
W
2-1
vs MOUZ
MirageDust2Nuke
May 22
24d ago
W
2-0
vs Legacy
Dust2Ancient
May 21
25d ago
W
2-0
vs M80
InfernoAncient
May 20
26d ago
W
1-0
vs BC.Game
Dust2
May 19
27d ago
L
0-3
vs Spirit
Dust2MirageAncient
May 17
29d ago
W
2-0
vs magic
AncientDust2
May 16
30d ago
W
2-1
vs FURIA
MirageNukeDust2
May 15
31d ago
Player Matchups
Natus Vincere
Ratings
Falcons
W0
w0nderful
AWPADR 74.9KAST 77%
M0
m0NESY
AWPADR 80.8KAST 76%
MA
makazze
RiflerADR 81.1KAST 75%
KY
kyousuke
RiflerADR 80.2KAST 73%
B1
b1t
EntryADR 79.0KAST 76%
NI
NiKo
EntryADR 74.3KAST 72%
IM
iM
RiflerADR 77.3KAST 75%
TE
TeSeS
RiflerADR 69.5KAST 72%
AL
Aleksib
RiflerADR 60.7KAST 73%
KA
karrigan
RiflerADR 57.9KAST 67%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Mirage
NAVI
13
–
8
FALC
79%
21%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Map Player Rating
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Map Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Mirage
Natus Vincere
13-6
vs The MongolZ
Jun 13
13-3
vs GamerLegion
May 17
13-11
vs GamerLegion
May 12
13-4
vs Passion UA
May 11
13-10
vs GamerLegion
Apr 30
Falcons
13-10
vs Monte
Jun 13
6-13
vs Legacy
May 23
7-13
vs MOUZ
May 22
7-13
vs Spirit
May 17
9-13
vs FURIA
May 15
Inferno
NAVI
13
–
8
FALC
75%
25%
Win prob
OT 8%
Key factors
After First Kill
NAVI
FALC
T 5v4
NAVI
FALC
Map Player Rating
NAVI
FALC
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Opening Kills
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Inferno
Natus Vincere
13-4
vs Legacy
Jun 12
13-3
vs Vitality
May 15
11-13
vs Legacy
May 13
13-4
vs GamerLegion
May 12
13-4
vs Aurora
Apr 15
Falcons
13-9
vs Monte
Jun 13
10-13
vs G2
Jun 11
19-15
vs M80
May 20
11-13
vs The MongolZ
May 12
13-10
vs 3DMAX
Apr 13
Nuke
NAVI
11
–
13
FALC
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
NAVI
FALC
After First Death
NAVI
FALC
Map Win Rate
NAVI
FALC
Map Player Rating
NAVI
FALC
Opponent-Rating Diff
NAVI
FALC
Recent on Nuke
Natus Vincere
8-13
vs The MongolZ
Jun 13
16-13
vs GamerLegion
May 17
13-6
vs BetBoom
May 16
12-16
vs Vitality
May 3
13-16
vs FURIA
Apr 14
Falcons
11-13
vs BetBoom
Jun 12
13-11
vs Legacy
May 23
13-10
vs MOUZ
May 22
22-20
vs FURIA
May 15
8-13
vs 9z
May 10
More from IEM Cologne Major 2026
5 matches