Bo3 · PGL Astana 2026
· 2026-05-09
MOUZ
✓
vs
Gentle Mates
81%
19%
Series win probability
MOUZ
2–0
43%
MOUZ
2–1
38%
GM
2–0
12%
GM
2–1
7%
Actual result
Nuke
16–12
MOUZ
Mirage
13–4
GM
Ancient
13–5
MOUZ
Model Insights
MOUZ is strongly favored at 81%, holding a map advantage on 3 of 3 predicted maps. Key factors: a significant ranking advantage (#11 vs #40), a strong mirage (84% win probability).
Predicted Maps
3 maps
Scenario 1
40%
Inferno · Overpass · Mirage
Scenario 2
35%
Inferno · Mirage · Nuke
Scenario 3
25%
Inferno · Mirage · Ancient
Inferno
MOUZ
13
–
10
GM
65%
35%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Overall Rating
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-10
vs Legacy
Apr 13
8-13
vs 9z
Mar 21
3-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 19
13-3
vs HEROIC
Mar 6
13-10
vs The MongolZ
Feb 22
Gentle Mates
19-22
vs magic
May 3
13-2
vs ASTRAL
Apr 29
13-5
vs 9INE
Apr 26
19-17
vs SINNERS
Apr 26
13-11
vs ASTRAL
Apr 25
Overpass
MOUZ
13
–
7
GM
66%
34%
Win prob
OT 7%
Key factors
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Death
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Overpass
MOUZ
13-10
vs FUT
Mar 13
13-11
vs The MongolZ
Mar 8
13-3
vs Astralis
Mar 7
16-14
vs FUT
Feb 17
13-3
vs PARIVISION
Feb 14
Gentle Mates
10-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 14
3-13
vs G2
Apr 13
9-13
vs 9INE
Apr 2
11-13
vs ninjas in pyjamas
Apr 1
13-10
vs betboom
Feb 22
Mirage
MOUZ
13
–
4
GM
84%
16%
Win prob
OT 1%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Death
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
8-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
5-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
13-8
vs Aurora
Apr 14
13-4
vs Legacy
Apr 13
11-13
vs FUT
Mar 13
Gentle Mates
16-19
vs magic
May 3
11-13
vs SINNERS
Apr 26
13-7
vs ASTRAL
Apr 25
9-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 14
8-13
vs G2
Apr 13
Inferno
MOUZ
13
–
10
GM
65%
35%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Overall Rating
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-10
vs Legacy
Apr 13
8-13
vs 9z
Mar 21
3-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 19
13-3
vs HEROIC
Mar 6
13-10
vs The MongolZ
Feb 22
Gentle Mates
19-22
vs magic
May 3
13-2
vs ASTRAL
Apr 29
13-5
vs 9INE
Apr 26
19-17
vs SINNERS
Apr 26
13-11
vs ASTRAL
Apr 25
Mirage
MOUZ
13
–
4
GM
84%
16%
Win prob
OT 1%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Death
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
8-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
5-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
13-8
vs Aurora
Apr 14
13-4
vs Legacy
Apr 13
11-13
vs FUT
Mar 13
Gentle Mates
16-19
vs magic
May 3
11-13
vs SINNERS
Apr 26
13-7
vs ASTRAL
Apr 25
9-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 14
8-13
vs G2
Apr 13
Nuke
MOUZ
9
–
13
GM
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 10%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Death
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Nuke
MOUZ
9-13
vs 9z
Mar 21
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 19
7-13
vs Vitality
Feb 7
Gentle Mates
13-8
vs FOKUS
May 2
10-13
vs SINNERS
Apr 26
4-13
vs 9INE
Apr 2
13-7
vs ninjas in pyjamas
Apr 1
13-16
vs HYPERSPIRIT
Mar 25
Inferno
MOUZ
13
–
10
GM
65%
35%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Overall Rating
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Inferno
MOUZ
13-10
vs Legacy
Apr 13
8-13
vs 9z
Mar 21
3-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 19
13-3
vs HEROIC
Mar 6
13-10
vs The MongolZ
Feb 22
Gentle Mates
19-22
vs magic
May 3
13-2
vs ASTRAL
Apr 29
13-5
vs 9INE
Apr 26
19-17
vs SINNERS
Apr 26
13-11
vs ASTRAL
Apr 25
Mirage
MOUZ
13
–
4
GM
84%
16%
Win prob
OT 1%
✗
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Death
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Mirage
MOUZ
8-13
vs Spirit
Apr 17
5-13
vs FURIA
Apr 15
13-8
vs Aurora
Apr 14
13-4
vs Legacy
Apr 13
11-13
vs FUT
Mar 13
Gentle Mates
16-19
vs magic
May 3
11-13
vs SINNERS
Apr 26
13-7
vs ASTRAL
Apr 25
9-13
vs RED Canids
Apr 14
8-13
vs G2
Apr 13
Ancient
MOUZ
13
–
6
GM
78%
22%
Win prob
OT 5%
✗
Key factors
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Map ADR
MOUZ
GM
Overall Rating
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ
13-1
vs The MongolZ
Mar 8
14-16
vs Astralis
Mar 7
10-13
vs Natus Vincere
Feb 20
13-9
vs NRG
Feb 1
Gentle Mates
13-11
vs FOKUS
May 2
16-13
vs ASTRAL
Apr 29
13-6
vs 9INE
Apr 26
13-4
vs RED Canids
Apr 14
5-13
vs ninjas in pyjamas
Apr 1
Recent Results
last 11 matches
MOUZ
Gentle Mates
L
0-2
vs Spirit
Dust2Mirage
Apr 17
59d ago
L
0-2
vs FURIA
MirageDust2
Apr 15
61d ago
W
2-0
vs Aurora
Dust2Mirage
Apr 14
62d ago
W
2-1
vs Legacy
Dust2InfernoMirage
Apr 13
63d ago
L
1-2
vs 9z
Dust2InfernoNuke
Mar 21
86d ago
L
0-2
vs The MongolZ
NukeInferno
Mar 19
88d ago
L
1-2
vs FUT
Dust2OverpassMirage
Mar 13
94d ago
W
2-0
vs The MongolZ
AncientOverpass
Mar 8
99d ago
W
2-1
vs Astralis
AncientMirageOverpass
Mar 7
100d ago
W
2-1
vs HEROIC
Dust2MirageInferno
Mar 6
101d ago
W
2-0
vs The MongolZ
MirageInferno
Feb 22
113d ago
L
0-2
vs magic
MirageInferno
May 3
43d ago
W
2-0
vs FOKUS
AncientNuke
May 2
44d ago
W
2-0
vs ASTRAL
AncientInferno
Apr 29
47d ago
W
2-0
vs 9INE
AncientInferno
Apr 26
50d ago
L
1-2
vs SINNERS
InfernoMirageNuke
Apr 26
50d ago
W
2-0
vs ASTRAL
MirageInferno
Apr 25
51d ago
L
1-2
vs RED Canids
MirageAncientOverpass
Apr 14
62d ago
L
1-2
vs G2
InfernoMirageOverpass
Apr 13
63d ago
L
1-2
vs 9INE
AnubisNukeOverpass
Apr 2
74d ago
L
1-2
vs ninjas in pyjamas
NukeOverpassAncient
Apr 1
75d ago
W
2-1
vs HYPERSPIRIT
AnubisNukeAncient
Mar 25
82d ago
Player Matchups
MOUZ
Ratings
Gentle Mates
XE
xelex
RiflerADR 83.5KAST 73%
MA
MartinezSa
AWPADR 76.5KAST 74%
SP
Spinx
RiflerADR 76.0KAST 73%
MO
mopoz
RiflerADR 77.5KAST 73%
JL
jL
EntryADR 77.7KAST 72%
SA
sausol
EntryADR 74.1KAST 74%
XE
xertioN
RiflerADR 78.4KAST 74%
AL
alex
RiflerADR 72.2KAST 72%
TO
torzsi
AWPADR 65.0KAST 72%
DA
dav1g
RiflerADR 70.9KAST 72%
Unpredicted Maps
3 maps
Ancient
MOUZ
13
–
6
GM
78%
22%
Win prob
OT 5%
Key factors
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Map ADR
MOUZ
GM
Overall Rating
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Ancient
MOUZ
13-1
vs The MongolZ
Mar 8
14-16
vs Astralis
Mar 7
10-13
vs Natus Vincere
Feb 20
13-9
vs NRG
Feb 1
Gentle Mates
13-11
vs FOKUS
May 2
16-13
vs ASTRAL
Apr 29
13-6
vs 9INE
Apr 26
13-4
vs RED Canids
Apr 14
5-13
vs ninjas in pyjamas
Apr 1
Nuke
MOUZ
9
–
13
GM
44%
56%
Win prob
OT 10%
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
After First Death
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
Round Win Rate
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Nuke
MOUZ
9-13
vs 9z
Mar 21
11-13
vs The MongolZ
Mar 19
7-13
vs Vitality
Feb 7
Gentle Mates
13-8
vs FOKUS
May 2
10-13
vs SINNERS
Apr 26
4-13
vs 9INE
Apr 2
13-7
vs ninjas in pyjamas
Apr 1
13-16
vs HYPERSPIRIT
Mar 25
Anubis
MOUZ
14
–
16
GM
48%
52%
Win prob
OT 12%
Key factors
After First Kill
MOUZ
GM
Ranking
MOUZ
GM
Schedule Strength
MOUZ
GM
After First Death
MOUZ
GM
Opening Kills
MOUZ
GM
Recent on Anubis
MOUZ
no data
Gentle Mates
13-9
vs 9INE
Apr 2
13-6
vs HYPERSPIRIT
Mar 25
3-13
vs HOTU
Feb 14
13-10
vs Bushido Wildcats
Feb 13
13-6
vs gothboiclique
Feb 12
More from PGL Astana 2026
5 matches